Although almost all European stock markets are up this year, things have been very difficult in recent weeks. Remarkably, in 2024 the Dutch stock exchange will be one of the best-performing stock markets in Europe. The AEX is up more than 13% YTD. The Eurostoxx50 over 9.5%, the DAX plus 7.5%. The CAC40 in Paris has risen more than 6% since the beginning of January.
Nevertheless, there is minor technical damage on most European indices. Based on macroeconomic data, there is uncertainty about interest rate developments later this year. Investors are therefore taking some pieces off the table, which has led to slight selling pressure.
There are no technical signals of a new bear market. However, the steep uptrends are being broken.
This time I look at the short-term technical profiles of some European stock markets.
Dutch stock market drops from upward trend channel
The AEX index tests resistance around 894.52 points (top of April 12).
Technically, the AEX indicates some weakness now that the upward trend, marked with the red dotted line, has been broken.
The index is no longer able to form higher tops and bottoms. In recent weeks, the AEX has stood still. We expect a consolidation above support 858.09 points (April 19 bottom).
Technically important is that the older rising trend channel is still valid from October.
The weakening in the market is confirmed by the flat 26-day line (sloping red line).
Euro Stoxx 50 is starting to falter technically
The European stock market index appears to have formed a lower top around 5,020 points at the end of April, signaling increasing selling pressure. Technically, the picture weakens somewhat as the rising trend breaks.
In addition, the Euro Stoxx 50 index represents a potential lower price peak. A break below the last price bottom and support around 4,884.12 points (bottom of April 19) would further undermine the technical picture. That would then free up room for further price declines; after that, 4,380.97 points becomes the next downside price target.
Resistance for the Euro Stoxx 50 index is at 5,121.71 points (top of April 2).
The deterioration in the market is confirmed by the downward sloping 26-day line (sloping red line).
CAC40 is coming under pressure
The technical condition of the French stock market is weakening slightly. The potential lower price top at the end of April around 8,145 points indicates increasing selling pressure.
The French stock market also appears to be leaving the upward trend, signaling an initial weakening. Keep a close eye on support 7,900.48 points (March 1 bottom), as space becomes available below for further price decline. We see resistance around 8,500.00 points (calculated price target).
The moderate condition of the French stock market is confirmed by the flat 26-day line (sloping red line).
DAX forms lower top
The German stock market is leaving behind the uptrend of the previous six months. As a result, the DAX index has weakened slightly from a technical point of view.
Now that the German stock market also appears to be forming a lower top, it is important to pay close attention to support 17,619.40 points (bottom of March 7). Be careful, because a break and closing position below support signals a new weakening. The DAX can then seek lower levels: 17,003.28 points will then become the next downward price target. Resistance is at 18,567.16 points (top of April 2).
The flat 26-day line (sloping red line) signals a weakening in the market.
Belgian stock market is approaching resistance
The Bel 20 index is approaching resistance 3,962.29 points (formed on January 20, 2023). The upward phase will only receive new impetus if this price top is broken. Further price increases can then be expected, initially towards 4,030 points. The support of the Belgian stock market is around 3,774.50 points (bottom of April 16).
The slightly upward trend of the 26-day line (sloping red line) signals a reasonable technical profile.
