That success, reported on Telegram by the Russian Ministry of Defense on Sunday afternoon, has not yet been verified. Six days ago, Ukraine reported that its troops were holding out and that they controlled two-thirds of the village. Since the fall of the strategic Avdiivka on February 17, Ukrainian forces on that part of the eastern front have been under immense pressure. They are ‘outgunned and outnumbered’, writes Reuters: the Russians have more weapons and more manpower, and they are now throwing them all into the fight.
According to the authoritative Forbes the capture of Novobachmutivka would not be a surprise, and the situation around Ocheretyne is desperate. It is expected that more villages will follow after Novobachmutivka. Otsjeretyne itself was taken by surprise on April 23. The Russians broke through and shot forward like a knife eight kilometers, after which the point of that knife ended up in the center of Ocheretyne. From there, Russian troops are now trying to advance further. They are pushing the Ukrainians further and further onto the defensive.
Situation for Ukrainians ‘significantly deteriorated’
The Ukrainians are facing a huge shortage of weapons and ammunition. It had been eagerly awaiting an American military aid package of around 57 billion euros for a long time, which was held up for months in Washington due to political tug-of-war between Democrats and Republicans. In Ukraine, ammunition was rationed, Reuters writes, and Russian artillery continued to fire. Ukrainian troops were slowly becoming exhausted from repelling one wave of Russian attacks after another, while ammunition was slowly running out.
Army leader Oleksandr Syrsky admitted in mid-April that the situation on the eastern front had ‘deteriorated significantly’ as a result of the intensified Russian offensive that had begun in mid-March. Russia not only achieved territorial gains, but also “tactical successes,” according to Syrsky. The head of the Ukrainian security service, Kirilo Budanov, now predicts, according to AFP, that May and June will be a ‘difficult period’ for Ukraine.
About the author
Michel Maas is foreign editor of de Volkskrant. Previously he was a correspondent in Eastern Europe and South-East Asia.
The American aid package has finally been approved and the United States is rushing to deliver ammunition and weapons, but it takes a while for them to reach the front, and in the time it takes Russia is now trying to push as far as possible. The Ukrainian army can according Forbes do little other than “take his losses and retreat a few miles,” but even that is perilous, the magazine says. Withdrawal must be coordinated because the Russians have enough ammunition to continue bombarding the Ukrainian troops with their artillery, and they are ready to strike.
The battle on the Eastern Front will be a race between Russian supremacy, Ukrainian endurance, and the speed with which America can once again supply Ukraine with sufficient weapons and ammunition.
