Conservatives are holding their breath in local British elections

• Fleur Launspach

  UK and Ireland correspondent

This day, May 2, has been in large letters in Westminster’s diaries for a long time: there are local elections in England and Wales. Councilors and mayors will be voted on – and in Blackpool an MP will also be elected to the British Parliament.

The local elections are seen as a test for the current Conservative government – with potentially serious consequences for the Prime Minister. In the event of defeat, Rishi Sunak’s party could even decide to replace him as leader.

According to the polls, the Conservative Party is indeed facing a major loss. The party could lose more than half of its councilors in places where local elections are currently taking place. The Conservatives now have about a thousand council seats, about as many as Labor, by the way.

In Blackpool, a Westminster MP will be elected as well as councillors. The neglected northern coastal town is an interesting case, which can be seen as an example of what is going on in the Netherlands RedWallconstituencies in the Midlands and the North of England. Although these were traditionally Labor areas, people there voted en masse for the Conservative Party under Johnson in 2019.

Brexit promises, hopes for more investments and fewer immigrants, and the prospect of a better economy fell on fertile soil in the Red Wall. But it has achieved little for the people of Blackpool. The local Conservative MP was even forced to resign after lining his pockets in a corruption scandal – adding to the sense of post-Brexit betrayal in the city. Now Blackpool appears to be returning to Labor hands, a trend seen in many parts of the north. In polls for the national elections later this year, Labor is far ahead of the Conservatives.

These Blackpool residents are disappointed with how Brexit turned out:

British are disappointed with Brexit: ‘No pot of gold at the end of the rainbow’

However, for disillusioned voters, there is also another hijacker on the shore. The Reform UK party is doing well in Blackpool and that is also symbolic of what is going on nationally: Reform UK is the former Brexit Party of Nigel Farage, which is advancing again in the polls and is challenging the Conservative Party on the right.

If the Conservatives lose half of the councilors today, plus a number of well-known mayoral posts and the parliamentarian in Blackpool on top of that, there is a threat of new drama in the Conservative Party.

Insurgents, the so-called plotters, have been panicking for months about poor polling and have kept pointing to this moment. A major defeat could give critics in the party the highest say and could lead to a load of letters submitted for a confidence vote. A possible new leader is said to be waiting in the wings, who can guide the party through the national elections instead of Sunak.

But if the local vote isn’t too damning for the Conservatives – that is, if they can retain some areas, including the well-known Conservative mayors of Birmingham and Tees Valley – then it could fizzle out. Without an uprising, Prime Minister Sunak could postpone the national vote until the autumn, hoping that the economy has picked up and as many immigrants as possible have been deported. The longer the run-up to the elections, the greater the chance that Labour’s competitors will encounter a scandal in the meantime, which could again alienate their voters from that party.