The Russian announcement about an exercise with tactical nuclear weapons comes after a number of developments in the West that the Kremlin is not happy with.
After much political wrangling, the US Congress recently approved a new aid package for Ukraine, worth 61 billion dollars (57 billion euros). At the end of last week, the United Kingdom gave Ukraine permission to bomb targets on Russian territory with British weapons, something that Ukraine’s Western allies have so far strictly prohibited. French President Emmanuel Macron also said against The Economist that he would consider sending French troops to Ukraine if the Russians make a breakthrough on the battlefield and Kyiv makes an official request.
The Kremlin promised responses to all of the above and appears to have opted for nuclear weapons. This is not the first time since the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Experts still consider it unlikely that Russia will use a tactical nuclear weapon there. It is difficult to get any military use out of it on the battlefield (without hitting your own troops) and the geopolitical consequences would be enormous. Even such a smaller nuclear weapon should only be used when your back is against the wall, is the cautious consensus.
Nevertheless, the West takes nuclear threats very seriously. Fear of nuclear escalation is the main reason why Western support for Ukraine often arrives late (as in the case of tanks and fighter planes) and remains relatively limited. Putin knows: as soon as he starts talking about nuclear weapons, he will at least have tense attention.
