Final call: AEX plays peek-a-boo with 900, but the stock market is still in good shape

Aaand it’s gone… Today the AEX finally just failed to hold on to the 900-point limit, which it had ended up narrowly above yesterday.

Today the index was well above this for a long time, but from noon sentiment started to waver. In the last fifteen minutes the 9 finally disappeared from the board, which is something that the chippers, among others, may feel guilty about, who lost quite a bit in the afternoon (see Gainers & Fallers). The AEX closed 0.05% lower at 899.60.

That does not alter the fact that the price chart of the last few months still looks great. Since the bottom at the end of October 2023, the index has risen 185 points (26%) at a relatively steady pace to reach 900 points.

The price rally is far from worry-free, but despite all the uncertainty in the market and about the economy, it is difficult to stop. According to the so-called ‘Fear & Greed’ index, fear among investors is currently dominating, but the index that has been known for years as the fear index, the volatility index VIX, is again approaching the lows of earlier this year after a short flash in April. .

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

Ahold Delhaize delivers

The companies that released Q1 figures did not always contribute to the positive side of the broad rally this earnings season, but today Ahold Delhaize did its bit. With an increase of 2.2%, it was the best AEX fund today.

Last year, the Zaanse grocer disappointed several times with weaker than expected figures, but in this first quarter Ahold had its affairs neatly in order. The European activities in particular performed well, with a turnover increase of 4.1%. Especially good when you take into account that tobacco sales in the Netherlands disappeared, which accounted for no less than 1.9 percentage points of European turnover.

America performed worse, as expected, with sales down 1.8%, although there were some mitigating circumstances. Ahold says it is looking for takeover targets in the US, but there was no news about that. Perhaps that will follow the Strategy Day on May 23.

Mirror images of Air France-KLM and AMG

In the Midkap index, Air France-KLM showed its best side, with an increase of 4.7%. There was no news or any other clear reason, unless it was today’s analysis on IEX. Not that he was so cheerful in tone. Yes, AF-KLM is making improvements on various fronts, but, notes Martin Crum, the carrier has a serious cost problem.

AMG Critical Materials did it a bit the other way around: it did have news (yesterday’s Q1 figures after trading hours), but followed it up with an initially uncharacteristically modest price performance. Although the signs still showed +0.9% at the end.

It was already known that the figures would be bad, but all in all, analysts were still quite pleased with what raw materials specialist AMG – which is plagued by low lithium and vandium prices – had managed to achieve. That even resulted in a price target increase. You can read what our analyst thought about it here:

Pharming’s hoops

And then there was Pharming. Crowd favorite in the small cap saloon, but to the dismay of many since April of this year, a penny stock on the Damrak again. Particularly since the issuance of a €100 million convertible, the share has fallen sharply and is now trading below 90 cents.

Today, the biopharmaceutical company reported a significant increase in sales, thanks to the commercial launch of Joenja in the US and higher sales of Ruconest. Yet, in the words of analyst Martin Crum, the market seems to underestimate Pharming’s growth potential.

The fact that a drug maker has to jump through many approval hoops to bring a drug to the market does not help to actually achieve that growth. Crum spoke to Pharming CEO Sijmen de Vries about the difficult process of getting Joenja approved in Europe (it has already received approval in the US):

CEO De Vries once again stated in an explanation that the EMA had insufficient knowledge at the time of the application for admission. First it had to be established that this disease existed and then a committee had to be formed to further assess the operation and safety around Joenja. All questions from the EMA have been answered, but it cannot be ruled out that more additional questions may arise from this agency.

You can find Martin’s entire story here:

The broad market

• The AEX is an exception in Europe, where almost all markets start the day higher
• Wall Street is not looking forward to it: S&P 500 -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%
• Eurodollar is almost flat at $1.0753
• The oil price appears to be recovering somewhat after the decline at the beginning of May
• Bitcoin drops slightly to $62,137, gold zigzags between $2,310 and $2,320

Risers & fallers

The top 3 and flop 3 of the Damrak

• Ahold Delhaize (+2.2%) is rewarded for the figures and leads the AEX index
• Fellow defensive player Heineken follows closely: +2.1%
• The chippers are in bad shape (around -1%) on a day when the US again takes measures against China (Huawei).
• Reality check at Berenberg, which lowers IMCD’s price target, but the share is happily trading higher (+1.4%)
• Air France-KLM wins the AMX today
• Van Lanschot (+2.6%) has been on the rise since last week’s figures
• SBM Offshore (-0.5%) provided an update that turned out to be in line with expectations
• Pharming (-1.8%) is also unable to cope with a significant increase in turnover
• Ebusco (+3%) is making another attempt to bounce back from the April lows

The agenda

Tomorrow, after the dew kicking, the prices will resume as normal on Beursplein, because the European stock exchange company Euronext does not observe Ascension Day. Dutch companies are kind enough not to provide figures, although it does rain ex-dividends.

Thursday May 9

• 04:00 China trade balance April
• 07:00 Argenx Q1 figures
• 09:00 Philips €0.85 ex-dividend
• 09:00 DSM-Firmenich €2.50 ex-dividend
• 09:00 Allfunds €0.0935 ex-dividend
• 09:00 Coca-Cola EP €0.74 ex-dividend
• 09:00 TKH €1.70 ex-dividend
• 13:00 Bank of England – interest rate decision (consensus: unchanged)
• 2:30 PM US aid applications – weekly

Friday May 10

• 08:00 Eurocommercial Q1 figures
• 08:00 UK economic growth first quarter
• 08:00 UK trade balance March
• 08:00 UK industrial production March
• 09:00 Wolters Kluwer €1.36 ex-dividend
• 09:00 Aperam €0.50 ex-dividend
• 09:00 AMG €0.20 ex-dividend
• 09:00 Arcadis €0.85 ex-dividend
• 4:00 PM US consumer confidence (University of Michigan) May (vlp)

And then this

Public noise at FlatexDegiro

No recovery yet in Germany

Electric car makers Rivian and Tesla will charge together

TikTok is fighting back

Sigh, Boeing…