Rutte to Turkey for ‘job interview’ with Erdogan: appointment as NATO chief closer

There he is, at customs at Schiphol: citizen Mark Rutte, briefcase in hand, on his way to Turkey, probably to get support (publicly or otherwise) from President Erdogan for his candidacy to become Secretary General of NATO. become. The race for Jens Stoltenberg’s succession was never going to be really exciting, because Rutte could immediately count on the support of the US, Germany, France and the UK.

Rutte’s bingo card is now almost full, but 4 of the 32 boxes are still empty, and one of them is in the name of the Turkish president. In 2017, they called the Netherlands a ‘fascist country’ during a major bilateral riot, but those wounds have been healed for years, says diplomatic expert Robert van de Roer. He calls the trip to Ankara part of a ‘sophisticated strategy’ that the Netherlands is implementing together with the Americans and major Western countries ‘to step by step eliminate the opportunists, doubters and obstructions’.

In February, twelve countries still had to be persuaded, now only four. “If Erdogan dies, the three Bs remain: Budapest, Bucharest and Bratislava.”

Kaya Kallas

Little can happen to Rutte anymore, also because good alternative candidates, such as Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, never had a serious chance with the major countries. This was not due to a lack of quality: Kallas has shown leadership in word and deed in recent years. She could have become the first female Secretary General of NATO and the first NATO chief from one of the ‘new member states’ that joined after the Cold War.

A choice for Kallas would also have been seen as recognition by many new Member States. Until Putin’s major invasion of Ukraine, worrying Polish and Baltic analyzes of Russia were consistently ignored or laughed off. After February 24, 2022, the picture changed radically and the great German and Dutch dependence on Russian gas became the symbol of Europe’s strategic naivety.

No experiments

But the selection of a new NATO secretary general is not a knowledge quiz or leadership test, but an American search for a European who is trusted and who can keep the club together in tough times. No experiments, is the motto, especially now that a war is raging in which Washington and Berlin have drawn clear red lines with regard to NATO’s involvement.

Tradition has it that the NATO chief comes from a founding state: so far twice a Belgian or someone from the Nordic countries, and three times a British, Italian or Dutchman.

The expectation is that next month (and by June at the latest) the matter will be finalized and ready for a unanimous decision in the North Atlantic Council. The Slovaks play no role and Erdogan has already hinted that he can agree with Rutte, says Van de Roer. ‘If Romanian President Iohannis also gives up, Orbán will no longer have a candidate and it will be over. The US must resolve the Johannis problem at some point, but he only wants President Biden in the Oval Office talk and not with Secretary of State Blinken. That game is on now.”