The Netherlands appears to have reached the turning point towards economic growth, according to the economic indicator of De Nederlandsche Bank. Until March, the ‘economic trend’ was declining, but it has now started to rise, notes BNR’s in-house economist Han de Jong. ‘The message is that growth is coming, and that growth will continue to accelerate.’
‘Most people will soon notice a rising economy’
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According to De Jong, the growth can be seen in indicators such as consumer confidence, companies’ order positions and a number of other elements that ‘all point in a positive direction in March’. It is not really all that surprising: after three difficult quarters in 2023, a clear recovery already started in the fourth quarter. ‘GDP growth was positive then and we actually already know that economic growth in 2024 is predicted to be higher than in 2023.’
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The main cause of the recovery is undeniably falling inflation, says De Jong, which gives a boost to spending and the economy. ‘The wage increase is above the level of inflation. This means that purchasing power improves for many people, allowing them to spend more. And that stimulates activity again.’ If it’s good, the consumer will already feel it in their wallet. ‘Many people have already noticed a significant increase in collective labor agreement wages.’
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And the quite significant drop in inflation can already be felt by many people, says De Jong. ‘If all goes well, you will already notice a little bit of improved purchasing power. Or maybe it’s a matter of waiting a little longer, but then hopefully you will notice it a little better over the course of the year.’
