AIVD paints a grim picture of threats to the Netherlands in its annual report: ‘It has become worse in many respects’

Rarely has the number of threats to Dutch security been as large and as diverse as now, Erik Akerboom, boss of the AIVD intelligence service, warned yesterday during the presentation of the annual report for 2023. “We have operations underway in many different areas. And we have never before so often requested ‘urgent’ permission from the Minister of the Interior for the use of a special intelligence tool to remove a potential threat to the Netherlands.”

The service paints a grim picture of all threats facing the Netherlands. Chinese cyber spies are trying to discover the secrets of Dutch companies. Russia tries to influence public opinion about Ukraine by supporting demonstrations against the Dutch government. Jihadist terrorists from Isis-K are trying to make plans for attacks. Conspiracy theorists turn away from society and believe that the Netherlands is in fact ruled by a global elite. And in the meantime, the war in Gaza is causing growing polarization in the Netherlands and a greater threat to Jewish Dutch people.

‘National threats are increasingly linked to international developments. The grim picture that the AIVD already painted for 2022 has become worse in many respects in 2023,” the AIVD writes in its annual report. “We live in the shadow of the war,” Akerboom said, referring to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. “The situation is partly so uncertain because the balance of power that existed in the world for a long time has become out of balance. Many countries try to strengthen their position at the expense of other countries. That is not an armed struggle. But there is conflict. It is not without reason that this period has been described as ‘the gray zone’ between war and peace.”

The dark picture painted by the AIVD is no surprise. The service has been warning for years about increasing espionage and influence from Russia and China. In addition, the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security raised the threat level in the Netherlands to the second highest level in December. That service estimates the risk of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands as real.

Russia

It is mainly international conflicts that pose a threat to the Netherlands. Russian spies have long been interested in the Netherlands, and this has only increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the AIVD, Russian services ‘had a hand in demonstrations in the Netherlands against Western support for Ukraine’.

The intelligence service also saw ‘several foreign cyber operations that probably had sabotage as the end goal’. These were operations that were specifically aimed at vital infrastructure. “The goal was probably not to immediately disrupt communications or shut down the energy network, but to build in the possibility of doing that later. For example in the event of a conflict.”

The service does not report whether these operations took place in the Netherlands. However, the AIVD, together with the military intelligence service MIVD, says it has discovered that Russian intelligence services were trying to gain unnoticed access to information systems of the Defense supply industry.

“We are not defenseless, we can find an answer to the threats, but we should not pretend that we live in peacetime,” says Akerboom. “Everyone should be aware that their identity can be used. You must be alert to your own safety and the safety of your company, organization or institution.”

Gaza

The war in Gaza is also causing a lot of unrest and polarization in the Netherlands, the service writes. ‘For example, the conflict there could be a trigger for radical Muslims to commit attacks here. And the danger of jihadist attacks was already greater in 2023.’ The threat against Jewish and Israeli targets in the Netherlands has mainly increased. As an example, the AIVD cites the increased threat against the Israeli embassy in The Hague in November 2023.

The conflict in Gaza is also grist for the mill of conspiracy theorists and anti-government activists. “For them, the conflict in Gaza is once again a world event that they explain as the work of an evil elite, which aims to oppress (among others) Dutch people,” the AIVD writes. ‘One of their explanations is that the conflict did not start with the Hamas attacks on October 7, but that everything was actually organized by the United States and Israel. Because this gives Western governments another pretext to take measures to suppress the population.’